Transformers has shown that toys do make good movies but will G.I. Joe get the same boost? The distributor, Paramount Pictures, is hoping to seize lightning in a bottle twice as they follow up their Transformers sequel with G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra.
G.I. Joe is based on the popular line of dolls, ahem “action figures”. They spawned a well-received animated series in the 80s and now have been revived for the big screen courtesy of director Stephen Sommers, who brought us the classics The Mummy and The Mummy Returns. The studio is hoping for a high gross but I don’t see them even coming close to the robots’ numbers.
While G.I. Joe is a brand name, the trailer has disappointed a lot of fans (accelerator suits, anyone?) and it seems to have an identity problem. Is it a kids movie? Or is it an adult action film? With these stumbling blocks, I see G.I. Joe grossing a still acceptable $60M this weekend.
On the opposite end of the quality scale is the newest Meryl Streep vehicle, Julie & Julia. Adults, mostly females, will compose the audience at this one. As the older crowd tend to not rush to movies right away, I see this one making $25M over opening weekend and have small drops over the last weeks of summer.
Funny People failed to connect with audiences last weekend and word-of-mouth will be deadly on this one. I see a 50% drop from last weekend which would give it about $11M over the three-day period.
Forth should go to A Perfect Getaway, the latest exercise in torture porn. I see a limited audience for this one which probably means I’m wrong and it’ll gross more than my prediction. Still, I’ll go with an $11M weekend.
Harry Potter saw a minor surge in business last week as it finally took over all the IMAX screens that Transformers had been locked into. That rise in business will be short lived and I predict it grossing half of last weekend’s $18M gross.
G-Force is still the only major offering for young kids and their parents. Most of them would have seen it by now and that’s why I’m predicting a high 50% drop for a three-day total of about $8.5M.
The Ugly Truth will lose a big chunk of their audience to Julie & Julia. It had a drastic drop of 52% this past weekend. I’ll go with a more moderate 40% for a Friday to Sunday total of $8M
Aliens in the Attic barely made a ripple last weekend. I’d go high with a 50% drop but something tells me that the slim pickings for families out there will give this one a $5M three-day total.
Orphan surprised a lot of people with its unlikely small drop of 41% last weekend. Generally, horror films have a tendency to drop in the 60% range in their second weekends. This one should fall a bit harder this week and I see it taking ninth with about $3.5 which would represent a drop of about 50%.
Tenth should go to Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs which has had small drops each consecutive weekend it has played. Last week I fell 34%. Without new competition I see it falling 40% this weekend for about $3.5M.
Check back on Saturday for an update and Sunday for studio estimates and see how close the predictions are.
| PLACE | TITLE | EST. WKEND GROSS | %DROP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | G.I. Joe | $60M | opening |
| 2 | Julie & Julia | $25M | opening |
| 3 | Funny People | $11.5M | 50% |
| 4 | A Perfect Getaway | $11M | opening |
| 5 | Harry Potter 6 | $9M | 50% |
| 6 | G-Force | $8.5M | 50% |
| 7 | The Ugly Truth | $8M | 40% |
| 8 | Aliens in the Attic | $5M | 40% |
| 9 | Orphan | $3.5M | 50% |
| 10 | Ice Age 3 | $3.5M | 40% |
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GI Joe could have been a really solid action film. By the looks of things they went CGI over story … again. That type of movie is getting quite tiring, and I probably will not see this movie in theatres.
And how about Funny People? I quite like that film, but do you think it is going to drop so much because people were under a false impression (due to bad marketing) of what the film was going to be?
It is amazing what is going on with GI Joe… BUT… i think when all is said and done it might make the money it needs to to be deemed a SUCCESS. The bad word of mouth and the stories of the drama during post production hurt it. BUT from what I have read it is a decent enough campy, not to be taken seriously, adventure ride. WHICH is exactly what sommers does, and does moderately well. So what were people expecting!? OH… they wanted an awesome action movie that is also a good movie… well sorry, that aint happening.
It looks like the crappy reviews and bad word-of-mouth will limit GI JOE’s first weekend. It grossed an estimated $20M Friday and is now looking at about $55M for the weekend.
Julie & Julia had a $7.5M opening day and should make about $20M or so this weekend.