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TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN will be the big story of the weekend as it aims for box-office numbers not seen since last summer’s THE DARK KNIGHT. It started out on Wednesday with a jaw-dropping $60M gross. That’s only second to DARK KNIGHT’s opening day gross of $67M and that was achieved on a Friday!

This sequel to 2007’s TRANSFORMERS has a built-in audience and is virtually critic-proof (it currently sits at Rotten Tomatoes with a 22% approval rate). The original had an opening weekend of $70M and I can’t see this one not increasing that number by almost 50%. Awareness is high, school is out and the market hasn’t seen a big action film since TERMINATOR SALVATION back in May. The only factor against a much higher gross is the lack of universal appeal a la Batman and a 2 ½ hour(!) runtime which will lessen the number of shows a theatre can play it in. For the weekend, I see REVENGE OF THE FALLEN grossing $100M.

On the opposite end of the spectrum lies the other new release of the weekend, MY SISTER’S KEEPER, based on the still best-selling Jodi Picoult book from 2004. It is the second major film in as many weeks mainly aimed at a female-based audience after last week’s THE PROPOSAL. Audiences that aren’t excited about robots and destruction will flock to this one and the fact that it’s based on a well-loved book should drive this one to a $20M gross. I may be a bit high on my guesstimate but you can never underestimate the older-skewing movies these days.

After a surprise $34M opening, THE PROPOSAL should fall about 35% this weekend. 30-35% has been the norm on “chick flicks” as older and female crowds tend not to rush out on opening weekend. Word of mouth has been good on this one. It will end the weekend with about $22M

THE HANGOVER and UP should see their small weekly declines go bye-bye this weekend because of the robots but they shouldn’t be ashamed at all. THE HANGOVER is currently sitting at $163M versus a minuscule $35M budget. UP has made $235M and is currently only behind STAR TREK for the #1 film of the year. I see both falling about 30% this weekend giving THE HANGOVER $18M for the weekend and UP $16M for the same period.

YEAR ONE proved that audiences may actually be tiring of Jack Black and Michael Cera’s shtick. Estimates from the last week had it at $21M but the actuals released on Monday showed that the $60M budgeted romp had only made $19M. The buzz on his one was bad to begin with and the word of mouth will kill this. Competition from TRANSFORMERS will not help its cause. A 55% decline would give it $8.5M but I’ll round it up to $9M.

NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM: BATTLE OF THE SMITHSONIAN should take 7th place and make about $5.5M this weekend.

I see TAKING OF PELHAM 1 2 3 falling 55% in its third weekend out and taking 8th with about $5.5M as well.

The final two spots in the top 10 will probably belong to STAR TREK and LAND OF THE LOST. STAR TREK will end up with a respectable $4M in its 8th weekend. The flop LAND OF THE LOST will end its run in the top 10 this weekend with a $2.5M gross.

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