Last week, I broke down what I see happening in the NFL’s NFC West division. I’m staying out west for this installment, covering the AFC West.
San Diego Chargers
Insight: San Diego had a run of good luck at the end of last season. The Denver Broncos fell apart and San Diego wound up winning the AFC West with an 8-8 record. 6th year Philip Rivers will try to recapture the lightning-in-a-bottle he found last season to lead his troops back into the playoffs. RB LaDanian Tomlinson and stud TE Antonio Gates struggled last season, both fighting injury for the largest part of the season, producing just over 1100 yards and just under 1000 yards, respectively. Both were their lowest numbers of their careers since becoming full-time starters. The Chargers are a real enigma this season. Receivers Vincent Jackson and Chris Chambers return as the probable starters, but Chambers has a history of injuries and Jackson under-achieves as a number 1 receiver. The defense is flashy and makes a lot of big plays, but also give up a lot of big plays as a result of their highlight-driven mentality. The brightest spot on the defensive side is that LB Shawne Merriman is back from injury.
Final Take: Rivers will play well and probably make the Pro Bowl. Head coach Norv Turner still doesn’t seem like a head coach as much as he does an assistant. The Chargers will make the playoffs again by virtue of playing in a weak division, but will falter in the playoffs.
2009 Prediction: 9-7, AFC West Champs
Kansas City Chiefs
Insight: New GM Scott Pioli brings with him QB Matt Cassel who, in Brady’s absence, guided the New England Patriots to a double-digit win season. Cassel will have returning target WR Dwayne Bowe, a solid young receiver, to throw to. On the opposite side, fresh from Seattle, Bobby Engram should be the other starting WR. Gone is perennial Pro Bowl TE Tony Gonzalez. At this point, the spot is wide open but 2nd year TE Brad Cottom seems like the obvious heir-apparent. RB is another spot where the Chiefs are a bit uncertain. I’m told by NFL insider Sam Farmer (LA Times) that former starter Larry Johnson has looked good in pre-season activities and should be named the starter. I also know Jamaal Charles looked pretty good in LJ’s absence late in 2008. The defense is lackluster at best. No real standouts as KC traded away their best defensive player last year in DE Jared Allen. Their pass rush isn’t anything special and only had 10 total sacks against opposing QBs last year. The additions of aging LBs Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas may make for some big plays here at the end of their careers, but won’t be enough to win them half of their games.
Final Take: The biggest wild card this season is new head coach Todd Haley. If he can get this team on track, they have the offensive weapons to take a shot at the Chargers and the AFC West title.
2009 Prediction: 7-9, 2nd AFC West
Oakland Raiders
Insight: Al Davis has run this franchise into the ground, throwing a $60M contract at subpar WR Javon Walker, another $72M at CB DeAngelo Hall (only to cut him 8 weeks later), and just generally making poor decisions for a general manager. That said, he actually did ok—though not good—in this past off-season. The Raiders acquired veteran QB Jeff Garcia who just came off of his contract in Tampa Bay. Garcia will either start or at least mentor young QB Jamarcus Russell. Rookie receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey falls in line with Al Davis’ love of speedy players. Young RB and college phenom Darren McFadden may be able to right his ship that was set off course by injuries last season, and could explode as a top 5 RB this season. Their pass defense isn’t terrible, but it isn’t good. Nnamdi Asomugha is a great CB, even having lost a step or two. Their run defense is lacking so much that it makes their pass defense look better. Sure, they may hold a team to a low passing yardage, but it’s because their opponents will be running all over them.
Final Take: The Raiders aren’t really that bad of a team anymore—but their schedule isn’t really that easy and it’ll spell their demise. McFadden has the chance to be a sun spot on this otherwise dark team. If Russell starts at QB, his strong arm could make Heyward-Bey a successful rookie and spell a good season for himself as well. Only time will tell.
2009 Prediction: 4-12, 3rd in AFC West
Denver Broncos
Insight: I don’t even know where to begin with the Broncos anymore. They fired head coach Mike Shanahan (dumb move). They traded franchise QB Jay Cutler (dumber move). Their legendary running game is a joke, pieced together by RBs that other teams haven’t been willing to give a chance. And, they’ve let their once fearsome defense deteriorate into the kind of squad that makes an opposing QB rub his hands together with glee just considering the prospect of taking them apart. The best things Denver had going for them last season were the combination of Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, and the emergence of Eddie Royal as a true #2 receiving option. Cutler is gone after new head coach Josh McDaniels—another piece of New England’s Belichick squad—was rumored to be pursuing free agent QB Matt Cassel before he landed in Kansas City. Cutler was traded to the Chicago Bears and the starting QB this season appears to be Kyle Orton, a guy known for mediocrity in Chicago. To make matters worse for the Broncos, #1 WR Brandon Marshall wants out too, citing the Broncos didn’t appropriately handle an injury he sustained. Everything seems to be working against the Broncos this season.
Final Take: If Marshall sticks around, Orton will wind up looking a little better than he did in Chicago and they may pick up an extra win or two. Peyton Hillis is the only returning RB from last season. Look for newcomers Correll Buckhalter (Eagles’ second option to Brian Westbrook), Lamont Jordan, and rookie Knowshon Moreno to all have a shot at being THE RB for the Broncos this year. The RB situation is still a mess, but starting out better than last season. The defense is still bad, but the offensive line may be the strongest part of this entire Denver squad.
2009 Prediction: 3-13, last in AFC West
Next week, I’ll cover the NFC North. This should be a fun one, as it includes the Minnesota Vikings and my favorite love-to-hate QB, Brett Favre. Be sure to check back by mid-week!
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You definitely have a point about the Raiders, Eric. They always seem to not match their expectations. With Al Davis running, or may I say ruining things, Oakland usually has bad chemistry which may account for that, like last year, when the peeing contest between him and Kiffin basically cost the Raiders a season.
However, this year I have noticed a change in Al’s behavior. Davis didn’t sign TO, didn’t waste a ton of money on veteran players, he kept Cable as coach to improve consistency, and has been a little more shrewd and sane with his decisions. The DHB draft choice is looking like a solid pick now, because he is a smart, hard working, psychologically sound and physically talented player, and because of the trouble the 49ers are having with Crabtree. Davis’ draft picks the last few years have been solid, especially the 2007 Draft, which might turn out to be the best draft in Oakland Raiders history.
I have a better feeling about this years team because of these reasons.
I figure the Raiders have 8 win talent, and in a weak division can mean easily 10 wins.
Good post, Eric!
I’ve got to say, I’m really surprised to be getting an outburst from Oakland fans, and not from Denver fans. No worries.
Let’s get out of the way that I may be wrong on Asomugha. I’m man enough to admit when I’m wrong- but the guy has gone from Pro Bowler to just above average. He’s still very good, I’m not taking that away from him. He doesn’t seem like the same player, though, and I’ll stand by that.
I’m not forgetting about Michael Bush, Bush was an amazing rusher for Louisville, and could be a great NFL rusher too, just a bruising, hard running, pure powerback. Problem is, Bush is buried behind McFadden and Fargas. Oakland’s rushing game is easily the best part of this team.
The new players Dan mentioned- keep in mind I made these projections prior to camp. This is all based off of what you’ll see on paper. In writing this column, I don’t think anyone outside of Oakland had heard of Chaz Schillens. DHB will perform well, Walker might get 800 yards/6 TDs, Higgins might be a good slot receiver. Russell might look good in practice, but it’s hard to believe Al went out and got Garcia to let him sit. In the end, while it DOESN’T take 53 Pro Bowl players, you can’t win double digit games with a middle of the road squad.
The problem with Oakland is they come in with so much promise, and rarely capitalize on it. It’s not just them- Cincinnati is the same way. Houston is the same. Buffalo. Same. For those of you who think I just don’t like the Raiders, trust me- it’s not that at all. I just can’t see vast improvements for them until I see them with my eyes.
The fact of the matter is San Diego is a very good team who should be completely healthy this season. LT should be back to form and be a top 10 RB, Gates should contend to be the top TE in the league, and Rivers just keeps on getting better. Kansas City is continually improving. From Engram to Toomer to Lelie, and the returning Bowe, they’re building a solid receiver corp for Cassel to throw to. Now having seen a little preseason work from the Raiders, I’d upgrade them to a maximum of 6 wins. The bottom line is that we’ll just have to see how 2009 goes for the men in black.
8/18/09 14:58 EDT EDIT: Bummer. No sooner than I reply, Schillens breaks his foot in practice. Sorry guys.
Yea, Usain Bolt has lost a step too!
LOL, The Chiefs 7-9 finishing ahead of the Raiders at 4-12. That’s a laugher.
Dude, I hope you don’t write articles for a living. Yes the Raiders have a tough schedule, they will be closer to 8-8 than 4-12. Nnamdi’s lost a step LOL, he is 28 years old and is the best CB in the league hands down. Are you at the Raiders practise with a stop watch timing Nnamdi or did you just pull that assumption out of your rear end. Your opinion stinks, so it must have been pulled out of your rear end.
well most analysts or so called fans do not understand what it takes to win a football game. 1. does not take pro bowl talent 2. need 53 players wanting to win as a team 3. most of all it takes coaching….what you haters and fans do not know is that the raiders went out and brought in the best coaches available( except cowher) brought in ted tollner for passing improvements, paul hacket to work with the qb’s and john marshal to run a bunch of blitz packages that the raiders have never run the past 4 seasons with rob ryan.Coaching wins football games and thats why the raiders will improve and make a run for the west….btw walker 60+ million was resctructured for like 10 or 6mil forgot what it was so get off walker’s contract in the past…….
Asomugha has lost a step? You are high! He just turned 28 last month! He has been acknowledged as by far the best cover corner in the league. The Raiders have the one of the best secondaries in the league. They probably have the best RB’s in football also. Michael Bush is a monster, who is probably more valuable as a RB than McFadden. He is a bruiser, who can wear down defenses. He will be the Raiders future. But the most suprising story of 2009 will be the Raiders wide receivers. Heyward-Bey is coming along nicely, and will be a factor in 2010. He has already shown an ability to stretch defenses. Javon Walker is finally healthy and will be a producer in 2009, but the real story is Chaz Schillens. He is a speedy, tall, athletic receiver who catches everything in site, and is developing as Russell’s favorite receiver, which will take some of the pressure off soon-to-be all pro beast tight end Zach Miller. Schillens will be a steal as a seventh-round draft pick. Add in speedsters Johnny Lee Higgins and suprising rookies Louis Murphy and Nick Miller, and the Raiders have potentially the best receivers in the AFC West.
JaMarcus Russell has been showing improvement in hitting his receivers on underneath routes, and has been improving on deep passes. Oakland will score a lot of points this year.
The defense is not great, but it is strong. Their pass defense is as good as ever, with Michael Huff rededicating himself to improve his play. The run defense will be improved this year, with the Raiders finishing probably somewhere around 20th in the league, which will help to win a lot of games, since the Oakland offense will be on the field much more, giving Warren, Kelly and Sands on the D line time to rest. The Raiders should score more points than they give up in 09, and that probably means at least 7 if not 9 or ten wins. Oakland has a 50/50 shot of winning the division this year, after what I predict will be a slow start. KC and Denver are weak, with the only other challenge in San Diego. However, Norv Turner has shown that he is not a preticularly strong fundamental coach, and history shows us that all the teams he coaches tend to get worst over time. Marty Schottenheimer turned the Chargers around, and Turner is riding Marty’s success. Denver is a disaster, and KC will probably improve, but not be a contender yet.
My predictons:
Oakland 10-6
San Diego 7-9
KC 6-10
Denver 4-12
Oakland has a whole, whole lot to prove. Al Davis seems intent on running this team into the ground- they have a less than spectacular defense, no identity at QB, and a weak receiving corp($60 mil on Javon Walker? REALLY?). Take into account they had one of the absolute worst rushing defenses in the NFL in 2008, and they’re facing the Chargers, the Chiefs, and Denver(watch out for Moreno) all twice. They’ve also got Houston, the Giants, Philly, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Washington, and Baltimore, all of whom have solid if not great rushing. They also get Cincinnati, who I think can and will make a little noise this season. I don’t see how they can win more than a MAX of 5 games. The only thing that ever even comes close to a good component for Oakland is their running game. If McFadden can stay healthy, he could make some serious noise, but it won’t be enough.
On the other side of the coin, the Chiefs made arguably one of the biggest off-season acquisitions in Cassell, another solid move picking up Bobby Engram who was a solid 2 in Seattle, and they’ve still got Dwayne Bowe who could wind up a top 10 receiver with a little good fortune. While their defense isn’t going to be much better than Oakland’s, they have new veteran leadership from Vrabel and Thomas. Both are aging, as I said in the article, but Vrabel comes from a perennial playoff team/Superbowl contender, and he knows what it takes to win. Thomas has always been an upper level DB, and can help Vrabel teach the rest of the LB core how to play at a higher level. Larry Johnson looks to be back in top form, and Jamaal Charles will provide steady support in the running game. If LJ stays healthy and out of trouble, he could go off again this season.
And lastly- I don’t dislike the Raiders. I never said I did, nor did I imply it. For me, it really just comes down to their tougher schedule. I do, however, think Al Davis is a complete moron. They’ve had a long string of bad luck since they were dismantled in Superbowl XXXVII. Who knows- if their schedule falls right, and they make some solid moves, they might come out contenders for the division in 2010.
lol..you my friend are an idiot…KC better than Oakland LOL. I know you dont like the Raiders (like everyone else) but just make believe your really an NFL analyst or something. They will a much improved team and will contend in the weak afc west this year.