TwoWordHeap

I’m dying to review the AFC South, my Colts, and one of my favorite sleeper teams in Houston^[1] but, by request, I’m headed further south to talk about the Falcons, the Saints, and the rest of the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons

Insight: Matt Ryan exploded as a rookie last year. He, with help from rising star WR Roddy White and Falcons’ newcomer Michael Turner, lead the Dirty Birds to an 11-5 record, and it still wasn’t enough to win their division as the Carolina Panthers just edged them out with a 12-4 record. This year, I see a slight decline in Turner’s production in plain view. He carried the ball an astounding 376 times. That’s too many carries for a guy who has Jerious Norwood to help shoulder the load. The Falcons also added veteran TE Tony Gonzalez, often regarded as the best TE of all time. Gonzalez should give Ryan a big, sure short yardage target and someplace else to look other than Roddy or WR Michael Jenkins in the redzone. The defense was poor in 2008, though their record doesn’t indicate it. They were 11th in the league in points allowed, despite being ranked 17th or lower in almost all defensive categories. They lost two starting LBs in Michael Boley and Keith Brooking, and this only weakens their interior defense.

Final Take: It’s hard not to think the Falcons won’t be able to repeat last year’s wild card season. With some good luck, the Falcons COULD nab the NFC South title outright but unfortunately their schedule is slightly tougher than that of the Saints.

2009 Prediction: 9-7, NFC South Champs^[2]

New Orleans Saints

Insight: This is a very, very tough division to call. No one team stands out so much that the others are pretty much eliminated from the playoffs from the season opener. I like the Saints. They’ve got a great offensive minded coach in Sean Payton, a top tier QB in Drew Brees, a great young receiver in Marques Colston, and a two-headed threat in the backfield of RBs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. Brees is a threat to toss 5000 yards in any season, Bush is a threat to rush 1000 yards and receive another 1000, and Colston, as a rookie, was one of the top receivers in the league in 2006. Their defense, however, has been their undoing for the last 3 years. The Saints could always be contenders to win the NFC and go to the Superbowl, but their defense lacks so much that they can never live up to their potential.

Final Take: While Bush is a great player on paper, he keeps coming up short, finds himself injured, and is generally a letdown every year. Their defense, while bolstered by the 2009 draft, still lacks too much to make them serious contenders. With a middle-of-the-road schedule, their win total could fluctuate by as many as 2-3 games either way.

2009 Prediction: 9-7, 2nd in NFC South^[2]

Carolina Panthers

Insight: I really like the Panthers for the most part. DE Julius Peppers leads a tough, scrappy defensive team who won this division just a year ago. Combine their great defense with potentially the most lethal two-headed running attack in the NFL in RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, a dash of QB Jake Delhomme to WR Steve Smith, and they were phenomenal until being knocked out by the Arizona Cardinals in the 2009 NFC Semifinals. Unfortunately, Delhomme isn’t the answer to Carolina’s QB question anymore. Take that, add in the fact that I really feel 2008′s breakout performance by Williams is partly a fluke^[3], and the Panthers are set for a decline.

Final Take: The running attack is still the best thing about this team. Delhomme is aging and will be a little less effective this year which will result in a decline in Steve Smith’s numbers as well. The defense has another year on their legs, but they’ll still be largely effective.

2009 Prediction: 8-8, 3rd in NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Insight: At the end of the 2008 season, the Bucs may have made the biggest mistake of the season: they fired head coach Jon Gruden. Gruden was at the helm for the Bucs 2002, 2005, and 2007 Divisional championships, and for their first and only Superbowl win in 2002. A lot of people are quick to point out he won with Tony Dungy’s team, who left at the end of 2001 to coach the Indianapolis Colts, but no one seems willing to also show that Gruden’s Bucs picked apart the Oakland Raiders, the very team Gruden built before leaving to coach in Tampa. Gruden’s former team not only made it to the Superbowl, but they were the heavy favorites. After starting 2008 9-3, they fell apart late, finishing 9-7. Important pieces are gone. Gruden is going to be an analyst now. Defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin is gone. Starting QB Jeff Garcia left to sign with the Raiders. Veterans RB Warrick Dunn, WRs Joey Galloway and Ike Hilliard, and LBs Cato June and Derrick Brooks have all left the team. The QB job will be decided between veteran Byron Leftwich and first round rookie Josh Freeman of Kansas State. Troubled standout TE Kellen Winslow joins the team, as does former “Earth, Wind, and Fire” Giants RB Derrick Ward. New head coach Raheem Morris was originally slated as the replacement for Kiffin. All of this together makes it hard to believe the Bucs will even be considered contenders in the division.

Final Take: Change is often good, sometimes bad—but this much change can’t possibly work out well for the Buccaneers. Defensively, they’ll struggle.  Offensively, they can only offer a former starter at QB who was rumored to have been considering retirement, new WRs that most of the country may not know, and the RB situation is a tossup between Ward and veteran Earnest Graham. This will not be a good season for Bucs fans.

2009 Prediction: 4-12, Last in NFC South

The NFC South will be a tight conference. What about the AFC South? Come back next Tuesday to find out. In the meantime, remember to comment on each of these sections with where you think I’m right or wrong, and who I should have as the top teams in each conference. Remember, you can also email me at tygr20@tygr20.com with your comments or ideas for future columns, or you can call 480-3-tygr20(480-389-4720) to leave voice comments.

1. That’s what we call foreshadowing, folks! [↩]
2. The Saints and Falcons will split their head to head games, but by virtue of a one conference win more than New Orleans, Atlanta will take the NFC South crown. [↩] [↩]
3. not entirely, mind you—you don’t accidentally score 20 TDs [↩]

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