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After a three week hiatus^[1], I’m back with another weekly dose of winners, losers, sleepers and underachievers for part 6 of an 8 part series. I’ll be talking about teams as close to where my heart is as I can in the AFC South.

Indianapolis Colts

Insight: As a Colts fan, I wasn’t really high on the team coming into this season. The loss of Marvin Harrison in the off-season was bad enough, but 3 crucial pieces of the puzzle are gone in head coach Tony Dungy, offensive coordinator Tom Moore, and offensive line coach Howard Mudd. This brings in a group of new coaching for QB Peyton Manning, who has never worked with anyone other than Moore and Mudd at their respective spots. I’m still not crazy about the Colts’ defense. I do like the offensive draft acquisitions of WR Austin Collie, Junior from BYU and NCAA rushing giant RB Donald Brown, Junior  from Connecticut. Both should fall into roles nicely. The key factor to the offense are returning players QB Peyton Manning, center Jeff Saturday, and WR Reggie Wayne. Saturday is an elite center, Wayne has glue-like hands, and Manning is arguably a top 10 all time QB.

Final Take: If the Colts’ defense was as high powered as their offense, we’d see a Colts/Patriots AFC Championship game every year that decided the league winner. The Super Bowl would be a formality. Unfortunately, the defense leaves a lot to be desired. They still have pieces that will help them win double-digit games. S Bob Sanders should play most of the season, and if the rest of his secondary mates in CBs Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson, and fellow safety Antoine Bethea can get healthy, they may still make a deep playoff run. This year may still yet be one of the Colts’ last chances to win a Super Bowl in a long, long time.

2009 Prediction: 11-5, AFC South Champs

Houston Texans

Insight: Houston is yet another team, like Oakland, who comes in every year with lots of promise- and then they fall flat. I think this will be the year they finally break through and make a difference. A solid offensive line makes QB Matt Schaub look like he’s ready to keep this offense running strong all season, provided he can escape injury that seems to plague him. RB Steve Slaton gave the Texans a great rushing game as a rookie. Andre Johnson is still hauling in TDs every time a ball is thrown in his direction. Mario Williams leads an underrated rushing defense, and an improving passing defense. If the defense can play solid this year, the Texans have an outside chance of contending for the AFC South crown.

Final Take: I’m really high on Slaton, Schaub, and Johnson. I like these guys to break .500 for the first time in the brief history of the Texans.

2009 Prediction: 9-7, 2nd in AFC South

Tennessee Titans

Insight: I’m going to take a lot of crap for this. Yes, I know Tennessee won 13 games last year. Yes I know they were a sexy pick for the Super Bowl last year. The problem is multi-dimensional. QB Kerry Collins is aging, and while he performed well all last season, he can’t be expected to keep it up with a poor stable of WRs. For that matter, every year increases injury risk, and Vince Young can’t lead this team if/when Collins goes down. Last year rookie phenom Chris Johnson has looked terrible in preseason. I don’t usually consider preseason stats too deeply, but he’s not struggling- he’s been terrible. In 3 games, he has 27 yards on 15 carries, 0 yards receiving with only one reception. LenDale White isn’t capable of carrying the bulk of the Titans’ carries. The loss of Albert Haynesworth on the defensive side is a shot to the gut of this stellar defense. They won’t be able to pressure QBs and rushers like they did last year, meaning the fact that the secondary is still strong won’t matter as much.

Final Take: Fortunately for the Titans, they have a somewhat easy non-conference schedule, outside of games at Pittsburgh and New England. Even the Cardinals coming to Tennessee is somewhat favorable for them, as their secondary can keep a little handle on the Cards’ WRs.

2009 Prediction: 8-8, 3rd in AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

Insight: The Jags went 35-13 from 2005-2007. Last year, however, they fell apart, finishing 5-11. The differences aren’t easy to see. They compiled 35 wins with a rag-tag group of players. Byron Leftwich and David Garrard weren’t/aren’t Pro Bowl caliber QBs, although Garrard might be one of the most underrated QBs in the league. After WR Jimmy Smith left in 2006, their core of receivers have had no identity. Their defense is solid, albeit not top notch. The only consistancies in the Jags’ camp have been their running game, and head coach Jack Del Rio. Fred Taylor, who carried the Jags’ rushing attack for several years is now gone to New England, but 4th year standout RB Maurice Jones-Drew is more than capable of filling the void despite his small 5′6″, 208 lb. frame. He’s a utility back, cut from similar molds as Philly’s Brian Westbrook and San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson. The defense is still solid, but not great.

Final Take: Jacksonville also has a tough schedule, and happens to be in one of the most competitive conferences in the league. They’ll play in some close games, but in the end, they’ll miss a winning record by 4 games.

2009 Prediction: 4-12, last in AFC South

The crazy thing about this conference is one or two wins fall the opposite way, and Houston wins this division. The team that was once the laughing stock of the league, much less this division, has a chance to lock up a playoff spot. We’ll see where things land come December. Next week, we head on over to the AFC East, and the powerhouse New England Patriots. Remember to leave comments for things you agree/disagree with, or email me with questions/comments here. You can also leave me a voice message at 480-3-tygr20(480-389-4720).

1. real life gets real crazy sometimes [↩]

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